Signal history · 2015–2026
Every signal, unedited
20 episodes in 12 years — about one every 7 months, but in clusters: 2015, 2018–20, 2021–22 and 2026. Here is what the price did after each one.
Strong zone only
Signals where the price was also below its 2-year average. Fewer signals, and the ones it drops were mostly mid-cycle dips: 4 of those 6 with a 12-month result were down a year later.
Bottom confirmed
Weekly oscillators confirm a strong zone. Every one came 3–15 days after a strong-zone signal.
Max confirmation
The rarest and strongest level: the cycle score also reached 85. Counted from 2018, when the score has enough history.
All episodes 20
| Signal date | Highest level | Price | Local bottom | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Strong | $59,696 | 30 Jun | +41% | — | — | Pending |
| 5 Jun 2026 | Strong | $61,042 | 30 Jun | +33% | — | — | Pending |
| 5 Feb 2026 | Max | $62,795 | same day | +30% | +2% | — | Good entry |
| 9 Nov 2022 | Max | $15,877 | 21 Nov | +46% | +74% | +131% | Good entry |
| 12 Jun 2022 | Max | $26,585 | 18 Jun | −18% | −36% | −3% | Fell further |
| 8 May 2022 | Confirmed | $34,026 | 27 May | −33% | −38% | −19% | Fell further |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Zone | $31,388 | 20 Jul | +83% | +40% | −32% | Good entry |
| 21 Jun 2021 | Zone | $31,634 | 20 Jul | +49% | +48% | −35% | Good entry |
| 12 Mar 2020 | Max | $4,842 | same day | +104% | +109% | +1,083% | Good entry |
| 16 Dec 2019 | Strong | $6,882 | 17 Dec | −22% | +38% | +182% | Fell further |
| 21 Nov 2019 | Confirmed | $7,612 | 17 Dec | +26% | +29% | +146% | Fell further |
| 23 Oct 2019 | Strong | $7,471 | 22 Nov | +17% | −8% | +74% | Fell further |
| 24 Sep 2019 | Zone | $8,537 | 24 Oct | −14% | −32% | +20% | Fell further |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Strong | $3,391 | 7 Feb | +52% | +181% | +174% | Good entry |
| 19 Nov 2018 | Max | $4,735 | 15 Dec | −23% | +53% | +72% | Fell further |
| 10 Jun 2018 | Zone | $6,781 | 28 Jun | −9% | −50% | +18% | Fell further |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Zone | $6,850 | 6 Apr | −15% | −6% | −40% | Good entry |
| 5 Feb 2018 | Zone | $6,874 | same day | +40% | +2% | −50% | Good entry |
| 18 Aug 2015 | Strong | $225 | 24 Aug | +47% | +80% | +154% | Good entry |
| 3 Jan 2015 | Confirmed | $282 | 14 Jan | −10% | −10% | +53% | Fell further |
Prices are Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes (UTC). Good entry = the price fell no more than 20% further within 180 days. Local bottom = lowest close within 30 days. Highest level = the strongest level that fired within 30 days of the signal. A new episode starts when more than 14 days have passed since the previous signal day.
The rule, exactly
- Weekly Stochastic %K(14) below 10 — the current, still-open week counts.
- Daily close below the lower Bollinger band (20-day SMA − 2σ).
- Close at least 50% below the all-time high.
- Strong zone: all three, plus a close below the 2-year (730-day) average.
- Bottom confirmed: within 30 days of a strong zone, at least 2 of 4 weekly oscillators (RCI, CCI, RSI, Bollinger) on a closed weekly candle.
- Max confirmation: bottom confirmed, and the cycle score reached 85 or more within 30 days.
What it is not
It does not pick the bottom: 50% of the signals were followed by a fall of more than 20%. Against simply buying every week the result depends on the period you pick. Treat it as a map of oversold zones, not a buy button.
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