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Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin

Bollinger Bands wrap the price in an envelope that widens when the market is volatile and narrows when it is calm. A daily close below the lower band means the sell-off has stretched further than usual — even for Bitcoin.

How they are calculated

The middle line is the 20-day simple moving average of daily closes. The lower band is that average minus 2 standard deviations of the same 20 closes (population standard deviation). The upper band is the mirror image.

On the 14 Nov 2026 close the lower band was $67,619 and Bitcoin closed −5.2% below it — this condition is met.

How often it happens

Since 2015 Bitcoin closed below its lower band on 4.6% of days. It happens in every sharp drop — which is exactly why it is not enough alone.

Why it is combined

A close below the lower band says “unusually fast fall”. It does not say whether the fall happened near the top of a bull market or after a long bear market. The buy zone requires it on the same day as a weekly Stochastic below 10 and a drawdown of at least 50%. Together they fired on about 1% of days.

A weekly version of the same band is one of the four oscillators used to confirm the bottom (level 3): a closed weekly candle more than 2σ below its 20-week average.

Not investment advice. Data: Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes. Frequencies: 2015 – Nov 2026. Last updated 14 Nov 2026.