Guide · updated 14 Nov 2026
When to buy Bitcoin: a rule-based answer
Most advice on when to buy Bitcoin is opinion. This page uses one fixed rule, tested on every day since 2015, and shows what happened after each time it fired — including the times it was wrong.
The short answer
Bitcoin has historically been cheapest when three things happened at once: the price was deeply oversold on the weekly chart, it closed below its lower Bollinger band, and it was at least 50% below its all-time high. Each of these alone is common. All three together happened on only 45 days out of 4,331 since 2015 — about 1% of the time.
Is now a good time? Not by this rule yet: on the 14 Nov 2026 close no signal is active — 2 of 3 zone conditions are met. The drawdown condition starts at a close below $63,136.
The four levels
- Zone — all three conditions on the same daily close. Worth buying with part of your funds.
- Strong zone — the same, and the price is also below its 2-year average. 9 of 11 strong signals with a full year of data were higher a year later; median +131%.
- Bottom confirmed — within 30 days of a strong zone, at least 2 of 4 weekly oscillators (RCI, CCI, RSI, Bollinger) agree on a closed week.
- Max confirmation — bottom confirmed and the cycle score reached 85 or more. 4 of 4 were higher a year later.
What history says — honestly
- 20 zone signals since 2015, in clusters around the 2015, 2018–20, 2021–22 and 2026 lows.
- 11 of 17 with a full year of data were in profit 12 months later; median +53%.
- The weak spot: 50% of signals were followed by another drop of more than 20% within six months. A signal marks a cheap zone, not the exact bottom.
Every signal, good and bad, is listed on the signal history page with its 3-, 6- and 12-month result, and you can test “what if I had bought at every signal” in the calculator.
How to use it: buy in parts
Because the bottom usually comes after the first signal, the rule pairs each signal with two follow-up levels: 20% and 35% below the signal price. Spreading a purchase over the signal and those levels has historically lowered the average price when the market kept falling, and still left you invested if it did not.
Where to buy Bitcoin
Affiliate links — we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.Not available in every country — check that the exchange serves where you live. After buying, consider moving long-term savings to your own wallet. Not investment advice.
The indicators behind it
- Weekly Stochastic oscillator — where the price sits in its 14-week range, and why below 10 is rare.
- Bollinger Bands — a volatility envelope; a close below the lower band marks a stretched sell-off.
- Drawdown from the all-time high — every major Bitcoin bottom was more than 50% down.
FAQ
When is the best time to buy Bitcoin?
No one can time the exact bottom. Historically, the best entries came when Bitcoin was deeply oversold and at least 50% below its all-time high. A simple rule that checks three such conditions fired 20 times since 2015; 11 of 17 signals with a full year of data were higher 12 months later.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
Not by this rule yet: on the 14 Nov 2026 close no signal is active — 2 of 3 zone conditions are met. The drawdown condition starts at a close below $63,136.
How often do Bitcoin buy-zone signals happen?
About once every 7 months on average, but in clusters: several signals within weeks near a bottom, then nothing for years.
Should I invest everything at once?
History says no: about 50% of signals were followed by a further fall of more than 20%. Buying in parts — at the signal, then again 20% and 35% lower — has handled those falls better.
Does a signal guarantee a profit?
No. It is a statistical indicator based on past prices, not investment advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns.
Not investment advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Data: Bitstamp BTC/USD daily closes. Last updated 14 Nov 2026.