Indicator · 3 of 3
Bitcoin drawdown from its all-time high
Drawdown is the simplest bottom indicator: how far the price is below its record. Every major Bitcoin bottom came after a fall of more than 50% — that is the bar the buy zone sets.
Today
The all-time high is $126,272 (intraday). On the 14 Nov 2026 close Bitcoin was −49.2% below it. The condition is met at a daily close of $63,136 or lower — −1.5% from today’s close.
Every big drawdown since 2013
| Period | All-time high | Lowest close | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–15 bear market | 30 Nov 2013 $1,163 | 14 Jan 2015 $171 | −85.3% |
| 2018 bear market | 17 Dec 2017 $19,666 | 15 Dec 2018 $3,180 | −83.8% |
| mid-cycle crash, summer 2021 | 14 Apr 2021 $64,895 | 20 Jul 2021 $29,787 | −54.1% |
| 2022 bear market | 10 Nov 2021 $69,000 | 21 Nov 2022 $15,766 | −77.2% |
| 2026, still open | 6 Oct 2025 $126,272 | 30 Jun 2026 $58,526 | −53.7% |
All-time high by intraday high, lowest daily close before the next record. Bitstamp BTC/USD.
Why 50% — and why it is not enough alone
Each completed bear market bottomed between −77% and −85%, and even the sharp 2021 mid-cycle crash went past −50%. So a 50% threshold catches every real bottom. The catch: once Bitcoin is that far down it often stays there for months — since 2015 it was 50%+ below its high on 44.2% of days. That is why the buy zone also waits for a weekly Stochastic below 10 and a close below the lower Bollinger band, which narrow those months down to the most oversold days.
Not investment advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Last updated 14 Nov 2026.